Vision
Vision
The Infrastructure Nobody Budgeted For
A senior analyst pauses over a number that passed every automated check. Something about it, against a pattern she's absorbed across thousands of similar numbers over years, makes her stop. She couldn't fully articulate why. Nearby, a junior colleague registers the pause. Files it somewhere wordless. That transmission has no line item, no owner, no design document. Entry-level hiring in the U.S. is down 35% since 2023, and the savings show up immediately. What those roles were quietly producing has no corresponding line in the budget.
The Infrastructure Nobody Budgeted For
A senior analyst pauses over a number that passed every automated check. Something about it, against a pattern she's absorbed across thousands of similar numbers over years, makes her stop. She couldn't fully articulate why. Nearby, a junior colleague registers the pause. Files it somewhere wordless. That transmission has no line item, no owner, no design document. Entry-level hiring in the U.S. is down 35% since 2023, and the savings show up immediately. What those roles were quietly producing has no corresponding line in the budget.
Two Bets on What Replaces It
IBM Bets That Watching Builds Knowing
IBM is tripling entry-level U.S. hiring while deploying agents that handle the work those hires used to learn from. The redesigned junior role is oversight: reviewing agent output, flagging anomalies, collaborating across teams. It sounds like a better job. It might be. But the old path to expertise ran through years of doing things badly and recovering. If the new path runs through watching, does it arrive at the same place?
PwC's Hourglass Org Runs on a Reservoir It Can't Refill
PwC wants the agent-era workforce built around generalists: experienced professionals orchestrating AI across entire workflows instead of executing narrow tasks. The model works, for now, because today's generalists spent years as specialists first. They know what good looks like because they once produced it by hand. PwC's own workforce paper admits as much. So what happens at the top of the hourglass when the pipeline that filled it with depth stops running?
Approximately Correct Since Day One — A Conversation From 2028
CONTINUE READINGHiring for How You Think
McKinsey's Solve assessment doesn't quiz candidates on business frameworks. It watches them play. Over 110 gamified minutes, the tool tracks every click, every pivot, every data point examined or ignored. Process matters as much as outcome.
KPMG's Q4 2025 survey found that 64% of large enterprises have already changed how they hire entry-level talent as AI agents absorb the knowledge work that once separated strong junior candidates from weak ones. The filter is migrating from expertise to cognition. Whether that's a genuine advance in spotting talent, or a quiet concession that nobody can define entry-level competence once the entry-level work has been automated away, remains honestly unclear.
Further Reading
